WTC final scenarios: India need a win in Sydney to stay in contention
Percent: 61.46; matches remaining: India (1 home Test), SL (2 away)
If Australia win the Sydney Test against India, they are through to the WTC final regardless of results in Sri Lanka – if Australia were to win in Sydney but lose both Tests in their upcoming series in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 57.02 percentage points to India’s 50 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85.
A draw in Sydney will keep them ahead of India, but it would leave the door open for Sri Lanka to sneak through; if Australia were to draw in Sydney but lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would climb up to 53.85.
If Australia were to lose in Sydney, they would need one win in Sri Lanka to qualify. A 1-1 verdict in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney would leave Australia on 57.02 to India’s 55.26. If Australia draw both Tests in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney, India and Australia will be level on 55.26, but India will qualify on the basis of having won more series in this WTC cycle.
Percent: 52.78; matches remaining: Australia (1 away)
India need to win in Sydney to stay in contention for the WTC final. A win would take India to 55.26, which would be enough for them to finish second if Australia were to achieve no more than two draws in Sri Lanka. As mentioned above, if Australia draw both Tests, they will finish level with India on percentage, but India will qualify with more series wins in this cycle. If Australia lose 1-0, they will drop to 53.51, and Sri Lanka will finish with 48.72 (with a 1-0 win).
However, if India only manage a draw, they will drop to 51.75 and will be out of the WTC final race. That is because even if Australia were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka after drawing in Sydney, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would climb up to 53.85.
Percent: 45.45; matches remaining: Australia (2 home)
The only way Sri Lanka can qualify is if the Sydney Test ends in a draw and they then beat Australia 2-0. In that case, Sri Lanka, on 53.85, would finish above Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).
If India win in Sydney, they will knock Sri Lanka out. Australia, also, will certainly finish ahead of Sri Lanka if they go to 3-1 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
